SpaceX's 'wild ride' is just getting started
The risk is now that the jitters become a catalyst for a wider sell-off of anything related to AI.
This newsletter was brought to you by Sonder London. Follow us on LinkedIn here. And thanks for reading.
Hello, and welcome to this week’s edition of The View from Space.
🔸 SpaceX’s ‘wild ride is just getting started’, reported Reuters, following its massive IPO, with the FT adding that ‘it’s been rough for anyone who jumped in on day one’:
‘In pretty much every way you can imagine, the SpaceX listing on June 12 was no ordinary initial public offering. Instead, it was held up as a bellwether of the stock market boom and investors’ appetite for valuations divorced from fundamentals. A lot is riding on its momentum, not least the expected mega-IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic.
Elon Musk’s AI/satellites/rockets conglomerate was primed to pop in early trading. As Rob wrote last week, the unusually large allocation to retail investors, the limited float and imminent fast-track absorption into major indices all but ensured that demand would outstrip supply and squeeze the IPO price upwards. And it worked!
But the good vibes have faded somewhat. In the past two days, SpaceX shares have dropped nearly 30 per cent from their post-IPO intraday peak of $225 on June 16. We’re still well above the IPO price of $135. Still, it’s rough for anyone who jumped in on day one.
The risk is now that the jitters become a catalyst for a wider sell-off of anything related to AI.’
🔸 In SpaceNews, Kammy Brun of Belgium-based optical payload company Simera Sense explains why Europe’s next security challenge is in orbit:
‘Europe says, as it has said for some time, that it is striving for strategic autonomy. Now is the time to obtain it. Europe is the second largest contributor to the global SSA market. It is focusing on strengthening strategic autonomy in space, which points to the need to develop space-based SSA (SB-SSA) technologies and infrastructure. This is encouraging because SB-SSA should be seen as a priority across Europe, including beyond the European Union, if we wish to be autonomous. We cannot defend ourselves against what we cannot see, and we cannot hope to plan sensibly for space defence if we are unsure, exactly, of the threats we face in orbit.
In Europe and the wider West, we have some of the world’s finest universities and institutions of research and higher learning, as well as talented engineers developing the optical technology of tomorrow. These cameras can spot an object just centimetres in diameter from up to 10 kilometers away. Europe must prioritise SSA by getting sustained and generous funding to manufacturers and innovators and reforming procurement so that the best companies, not just the most familiar ones, can compete for contracts.’
🔸 EuroNews reported that SpaceX ‘quietly launched a spacecraft no one knew existed’:
‘SpaceX says Starfall could offer “access to microgravity and vacuum” for companies interested in space manufacturing and “point-to-point delivery of critical cargo through space on rapid timelines,” which could mean missiles or military hardware. …
Each Starfall capsule can carry 2,200 lbs or around 998 kilograms of payload, according to the FAA filings. They each have one extension for the payload and one for the heat shield.
“Today’s mission includes a demo of a new vehicle that will enable affordable, routine access to the microgravity environment for scientific research and in-space manufacturing,” SpaceX posted on X Tuesday.’
🔸 Airbus and Leonardo urged Brussels to approve their proposed pan-European space merger with Thales, arguing that it was essential to compete against global rivals such as Elon Musk’s SpaceX. The FT reported:
‘“Without co-operation, European industries will never reach the critical mass and the capability to really be worldwide champions as an alternative not only to American companies but also as an alternative to many other players that are coming from the market,” Lorenzo Mariani, Leonardo’s recently appointed chief executive, told the FT.
The deal between the European aerospace group and the French and Italian companies, codenamed Bromo and struck in October last year, would combine activities spanning satellite manufacturing to space systems and services.
It has drawn criticism from other European players, including Germany’s OHB and Spain’s Indra Space, who fear the deal could reduce competition in the European satellite market.’
🔸 SpaceNews reported that orbital defence company Shield Space and the British subsidiary of in-orbit serving company ClearSpace signed an MoU to develop sovereign space defence capabilities for Britain and its allies:
‘Founded in 2025, Shield Space is developing software designed to keep satellites operating autonomously even when communications with the ground are disrupted. Luxembourg-headquartered ClearSpace, founded in 2018 with operations also spanning Switzerland, Germany and the U.K., is developing spacecraft for in-orbit inspection, life extension and debris removal applications.
Graeme Ritchie, Shield Space’s cofounder and CEO, said their partnership brings together companies focused on different aspects of autonomous proximity operations.
“ClearSpace has built world-class proximity operations in the service of responsible space operations,” he said via email. “Shield Space was founded to address a fundamentally different problem: enabling allied operators to maintain mission continuity in denied or degraded environments.”
The companies said their agreement establishes a framework for integrating complementary capabilities, while providing a foundation for a broader industrial alliance focused on sovereign space defence.’
🔸 Dr Robert Brüll wrote in Defence Matters that if Europe is serious about gaining strategic autonomy, it must wean itself off all foreign technology:
‘Many military systems include parts that can be manipulated remotely – can be disabled, withheld, restricted, or otherwise made difficult to use. Even if the companies who have this power are from allied countries, such systems must still be said to be vulnerable. We – Europe – simply can’t call ourselves sovereign if someone else can turn off the lights whenever they want. …
Actually achieving autonomy is more complicated than it looks. Europe is hamstrung by an old-fashioned take on procurement that is taking painfully slow to reform. Startups developing the technology of tomorrow, and doing so at speed, particularly dual-use or space companies, are frequently overlooked – despite the centrality of speed and innovation in war, as our friends in Ukraine have shown. There is fragmentation and duplication on the continent, whereby major countries spend their own money on building their own technology, rather than share costs, avoid duplication, and scale production together. And there is a lack of standardisation, which undermines interoperability and makes it harder for smaller players to join the European market.’
🔸 Payload Space said NASA’s launch facilities will near capacity by 2028 or 2029, and that at least $1bn of upgrades will be needed for roads, electrical systems, gas pipelines and launch support:
'The IG found extensive problems at the agency’s main launch center at KSC that are only expected to get worse as the launch cadence rises to reach 268 in 2030—up from 109 in 2025.
The aging infrastructure that supplies power, gas, and transportation to launch pads is not adequate to support the growing number of liftoffs;
The system to deliver nitrogen and helium to the launch pads can’t support multiple users at once, which could force launch delays;
The center’s roads and bridges are more than 60 years old, and are not in good-enough condition to support the additional truck trips required to haul launch hardware. The 17 launches in 2019 required 1,956 truck trips, while the 109 launches in 2025 required 8,752.
The electrical system at NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia was updated in 2018, and construction began on the causeway bridge to reach the base in 2025, so it doesn’t face the same scale of issues—though the number of launches from the small facility is expected to grow by to 44 in 2030, up from 17 in 2025.’
🔸 And finally, here’s Europe’s heatwave, seen from space: