Space the 'first mover' in the Iran conflict
US Space Command used 'non-kinetic effects' to disrupt Iran’s infrastructure in space.
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Hello, and welcome to this week’s edition of The View from Space. This week, we’re at Space-Comm Expo in London.
🛰️ Payload reports that space played a critical role in the early stages of Operation Epic Fury, according to the Pentagon’s top general:
‘Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine said Monday that US Space Command used “non-kinetic effects” to disrupt Iran’s infrastructure in space, hindering their ability to operate in the first hours of the conflict, which began on Feb. 28.
“The first movers were USCYBERCOM and USSPACECOM,” Caine said at a press conference. “Coordinated space and cyber operations effectively disrupted communications and sensor networks across the area of responsibility, leaving the adversary without the ability to see, coordinate, or respond effectively.”
The remarks prove that space is no longer a nice-to-have capability in conflict, as everything from comms to intel collection to navigation can be disabled if adversaries target space assets. While this isn’t the first military conflict to extend to (or begin) in space, it is a real-world demonstration showing why maintaining eyes in orbit during conflict is critical to military success.
While Iran may have been blinded in orbit, commercial space assets are giving the public a view of the conflict from the ultimate high ground. Imagery from companies, including Vantor and Planet Labs, has shown the result of the US and Israeli strikes. ‘
⚠️ Washington will retaliate if Europe imposes measures that favour its own satellite companies over American ones, the head of the United States’ communications regulator has said. POLITICO reports:
‘The U.S. will not hesitate to push European satellite firms out of the American market if it finds that Europe is doing the same, the Federal Communications Commission chairman warned EU officials.
“We just want to make sure that every satellite operator gets a fair shake in Europe,” Carr said in an interview on Tuesday at a major telecom conference in Barcelona. “If Europe wants to go in a different direction, there are European satellite operators that do business in America and we’ll mirror the regulatory approach that Europe wants to take.
“Europe really needs growth, Europe needs security. I think for Europe to achieve its goals on growth and security, it’s important to be a good partner of U.S.-based businesses,” he said.’
🤖 AI fakes are turning satellite images into war misinformation, reports the FT:
‘Satellite imagery that appears to have been either generated or modified with AI was shared widely on social media at the weekend, highlighting the dangers of the technology as a potential vehicle for misinformation in wartime.
An image circulated on X — including in a post from the official account of the Iranian newspaper the Tehran Times — shows a satellite image claiming to depict damage to an American radar system in Qatar following an Iranian drone strike.
FT analysis reveals it to be an AI-altered image of an area in Bahrain. Videos verified by the FT show several strikes near the radar system, and satellite imagery captured by Planet Labs on March 1 confirms that the site has been damaged.
But the image of the destroyed radar features signs of manipulation: vehicles that appeared in the “before” photo taken more than a year ago remain in the same position, the shadows fall at exactly the same angle as in the earlier image, and parts of the building’s structure have been altered. Historical satellite imagery shows no structural changes to the site in many years..’
⚡️ Blue Origin, the rocket company founded by Jeff Bezos, is preparing to enter one of the most hotly contested arenas in the space industry: global broadband from low Earth orbit. SpaceNews reports:
‘In a regulatory filing that caught many in the industry off guard, Blue Origin set forth plans for a network called TeraWave comprising more than 5,000 LEO satellites, paired with a medium Earth orbit (MEO) layer to deliver up to 6 terabits per second in point-to-point ground links.
The plan marks a sharp expansion for Blue Origin, which has until now focused on developing rockets, lunar landers and an in-space mobility vehicle platform called Blue Ring.
It’s an ambitious program that raises immediate questions about whether launch capacity and the required technology will be ready at scale on Blue Origin’s timeline.
The LEO satellites would use higher-frequency spectrum than rivals, making those links more susceptible to atmospheric interference, while the blistering speeds being promised from MEO hinge on emerging optical space-to-ground technology.’
🚀 Putting data centres in space, recently derided by OpenAI’s Sam Altman as ‘ridiculous’, are ‘less crazy than you think’, says the Economist:
‘If SpaceX’s new Starship rocket starts working, launch costs could fall fast. Because Starship is designed to be fully reusable, the price of sending a kilogram into orbit could drop to $100-200, says Mr Johnston. (The actual cost to SpaceX would be much less; possibly as low as $20/kg.) Put a launch price of $200/kg into Mr McCalip’s calculator, and the cost of the 1GW orbital data centre drops to $12.1bn—less than the terrestrial one. The idea, in short, may not be quite as crazy as it looks.
Another unknown is cooling. Starcloud’s initial satellite could not run its GPU around the clock because (as expected) it got too hot. The firm plans to launch a second test satellite, Starcloud-2, this year to evaluate its design for an unfolding radiator, to provide cooling. Mr Johnston says it will be “the largest commercial deployable radiator in space”, second in size only to the radiator on the International Space Station, but providing ten times as much heat dissipation per kilogram. Starcloud’s cost estimates assume that this radiator will work as planned.
Other assumptions may be too pessimistic. For one, Mr McCalip’s calculator assumes that as many as 9% of GPUs launched into orbit will fail every year. But one lesson from Starcloud-1, says Mr Johnston, is that “GPUs work better in space than we had expected”. He is reluctant to share the exact figures. But if only 5% of GPUs fail each year, fewer satellites would be needed, and the cost of the orbital data centre would drop to $11.1bn.’
📈 NewSpace Capital’s Bogdan Gogulan, CEO of the world’s first private equity firm focused exclusively on growth-stage space companies, sat down with Calibre Defence to explain how his team approach investment, and why in space there lies a vast opportunity for investors:
‘Space is a vast market. In 2024, the global space economy hit a record $613 billion, according to the Space Report. McKinsey estimates that by 2035, it will reach $1.8 trillion. So its current period of growth doesn’t look like it’s slowing down any time soon. “Space has been growing at 10 to 15% per year,” Bogdan says, adding that the engine for that growth has been the private sector. This is a real change: space used to be for the military; governments were the ones with budgets for rockets and satellites. (Incidentally, one of the global hubs for commercial space is Luxembourg, where NewSpace Capital was founded.)
In the beginning, the biggest challenge for private players related to launch. … Now, there are thousands of operational satellites in orbit, and space is a ubiquitous feature of modern life. Most of us don’t realise quite how fundamental space infrastructure is to the way we live and work. Bogdan uses the financial system as an example. “The timing of all modern financial trades happens based on the atomic clock that is orbiting in space,” he says. “Every trade relies on knowing this time and the communications have to be timed and then reconciled. That happens using the space-based clock. The modern financial system wouldn’t work without space.” Nor would apps like Uber, he adds.’
🛢️ The Gulf’s biggest oil producers are facing a race against time to resume exports before their storage tanks fill up, reports the FT, citing data from energy and environmental intelligence company Kayrros:
‘Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has the most extensive storage in the region, but satellite imagery suggests that some facilities are becoming stretched. Antoine Halff, co-founder of satellite imaging company Kayrros, said Saudi Arabia’s Juaymah terminal, one of the largest storage complexes in the Gulf, was “quickly running out of spare capacity”.
He added: “Storage at the Ras Tanura refinery which was hit by drones was filling up too: four crude tanks out of six were already full.”
Richard Bronze, head of geopolitical analysis at consultancy Energy Aspects, said Saudi Arabia’s buffer was likely to last longer than those of its neighbours. In addition to domestic storage, the kingdom can divert several million barrels a day through its east-west pipeline to a Red Sea terminal, bypassing Hormuz. That could give Riyadh three to four weeks before it needs to trim production, he said.’
😔 And lastly, Japanese start-up Space One has failed to put a satellite in orbit for the third time: