So Trump and Musk have fallen out. What does that mean for space?
Has an over-reliance on SpaceX and its ‘volatile’ owner left space exploration exposed to death by a billion cuts?
This newsletter was brought to you by Sonder London. We like to hear from our readers. So if you have any feedback or story suggestions, get in touch. And thanks for reading.
Good morning, reader. Here’s what we’ve got for you this week …
It probably won’t have escaped your notice that the Trump-Musk bromance is over. (Who could have predicted it?) The split has plunged NASA into its ‘biggest ever crisis’, says Pallab Ghosh of the BBC:
‘The White House had requested huge cuts to the space agency's budget, which would see funding for science projects cut by nearly a half.
Now the president has threatened to withdraw federal contracts with Musk's company, Space X, further jeopardising the US space programme.
Nasa relies on the firm's Falcon 9 rocket fleet to resupply the International Space Station with crew and supplies. The space agency also expects to use its Starship rocket to send astronauts to the Moon and eventually to Mars once it has been developed.
Dr Simeon Barber, a space scientist at the Open University, said that the uncertainty was having a "chilling impact" on the human space programme.
"The astonishing exchanges, snap decisions and U-turns we've witnessed in the last week undermine the very foundations that we build our ambitions on.
"Space science and exploration relies upon long term planning and cooperation between government, companies and academic institutions."’
On a more cheerful note, Jean-François Morizur, lasercom pioneer and CEO of deep tech company Cailabs, argues in Satellite Pro that a Europe-Middle East alliance could ‘shape the future of space’:
‘European space funding is divided between national agencies, the ESA, and the EU, each with its own priorities, budgets, and political considerations. This leads to duplication of efforts, slow decision-making, and a lack of coordinated support for private-sector innovation. Meanwhile, the US benefits from strong coordination between NASA, the Department of Defense, and private industry — a model that has helped companies like SpaceX thrive.
A partnership between Europe and the UAE could offer a solution. Combining Europe’s strengths in R&D with the Middle East’s ability to deploy capital at scale would benefit both regions. The UAE could provide targeted investment in European startups, while European firms could deliver the cutting-edge technology the UAE needs to expand its space sector. The UAE’s Mars Hope Probe was a landmark mission, showcasing its ambition, yet it still relies heavily on foreign technology.
This partnership could take many forms: dedicated UAE investment funds for European space startups; joint satellite or launch infrastructure projects; and supportive government policies to encourage joint ventures and technology-sharing agreements.’
And in The Guardian, Oliver Holmes writes that India is to send its first astronaut to the International Space Station:
‘Shubhanshu Shukla, a 39-year-old air force fighter pilot, is is part of four-person mission launching on Tuesday from the US with the private company Axiom Space, which is using a SpaceX capsule.
He will be the third astronaut of Indian origin to reach orbit, following Rakesh Sharma, who was part of a 1984 flight onboard a Soviet Soyuz spacecraft, and Kalpana Chawla, who was born in India but became a US citizen and flew on two space shuttle missions, including the 2003 Columbia flight that ended in disaster when the spacecraft disintegrated, killing all seven astronauts onboard.
“I truly believe that even though, as an individual, I am travelling to space, this is the journey of 1.4 billion people,” Shukla was quoted as saying by the Hindu newspaper this year. Shukla said he hoped to “ignite the curiosity of an entire generation in my country”.’
While Defense Express reports that Germany is to get an Arrow 3 missile shield, a space-based defence system that could cover all of Europe:
‘Germany’s interest in the system first emerged in March 2022, when German media reported that Berlin was considering the acquisition to defend against Russian missiles. By 2023, a $3.5 billion contract was signed, marking the largest defense export in Israel’s history.
The Arrow 3 system uses exoatmospheric hypersonic interceptor missiles that operate on a "hit-to-kill" principle, with a maximum range of 2,400 km. It is designed to intercept ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ones, in the vacuum of space. The system is also reportedly capable of being used as an anti-satellite weapon.
However, while the Arrow 3 is optimized for intercepting ballistic missiles in space, it is not effective within the atmosphere. To address this, Germany also plans to acquire the Arrow 4 system. While the name may suggest a more advanced capability, Arrow 4 is actually inferior to its predecessor in several respects. Still, it will fill the capability gap between the Patriot PAC-3 and the Arrow 3.’
On the New Space Vision podcast, Bogdan Gogulan, Managing Partner of space-focused private equity NewSpace Capital, discusses what it’s like to to play in space’s ‘valley of death’ – the messy middle between early-stage promise and actual scale:
‘There is no shortage of early-stage capital: grants, regional funds, and angel or seed-stage investors abound. Late-stage capital is also plentiful: when a company hits a multibillion-dollar valuation, private equity and bank financing step in.
But between these two ends lies a capital valley – the hardest part to fund and the hardest phase to grow through.
This is typically when companies grow from 40 or 50 employees to 200. It is a transformation not just in scale but in leadership. The CEO can no longer function as a de facto CTO. They must become a strategist, a people leader, a visionary—and a world-class fundraiser.
That is the moment we invest in. And that is the moment we help founders grow into the leaders their companies need.’
And finally, an eagle-eyed YouTuber has captured a train of Starlink satellites passing over the moon: